China Stock Pitches Here are some stock pitches for investment banking interviews only. They are not updated and should not be relied upon to make an investment decision. Contents1 AAG Energy Holdings (SEHK: 2686)2 Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA / SEHK: 9988)3 ANTA Sports Products Limited (SEHK: 2020)4 China Construction Bank (SEHK 0939)5 China East Education Holdings (SEHK 0667)6 China Merchants Bank SHSE: 600036 SEHK: 39687 CNOOC SEHK: 0883 China National Offshore Oil Company8 Li Ning Company Limited (SEHK 2331)9 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China (SEHK 2318)10 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SEHK 0981) AAG Energy Holdings (SEHK: 2686) AAG Energy Holdings is a coalbed methane company Company is majority owned by Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co (SHSE: 603393) AAG Energy’s key operating assets are Panzhuang and Mabi concessions in the southwestern part of Shanxi province’s Qinshui Basin Both are producing, cash flowing assets Panzhuang is in partnership with China United Coalbed Methane Corporation (owned by CNOOC) Designed annual production of 650 million cubic meters 2019 gross production of 859 million cubic meters (30.3 bcf) with 99 wells drilled, ahead of target Mabi concession is with China National Petroleum Corporation, the parent company of Petrochina The designed annual production capacity for commercial development is 1 billion cubic meters Project is ramping up, 2019 gross production of 72 million cubic meters Financials Revenue grew by 20% to $1.5 billion RMB Production grew by 16% to 931 million cubic meters The average selling price was $1.67 RMB per cubic meter There are government subsidies to encourage production There are VAT refunds to encourage production of a nationally important industry Net profit grew to $707 million RMB EBITDA rose by 46% to $1.2 billion RMB Coalbed Methane Industry Coalbed Methane (CBM) is natural gas stored in and around coal seams. Primarily methane (90%) and other gases such as CO2 During the coal mining process, methane is a threat to work safety and the gas is released into the atmosphere CBM extraction reduces emissions and is a source of power CBM largest reserves are in Russia, Canada, Australia, China and the USA China is incentivizing natural gas production for more energy independence and a shifting fuel mix from dirty coal for power generation Valuation Trading at 1.5x EV/LTM EBITDA and 5x LTM Price/Earnings No debt and cash balance of HKD2.3 billion Gas prices are likely to be low (and LNG prices) in 2020 given COVID-19, but still strong free cash flow Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA / SEHK: 9988) Largest technology company in China with competitive moat in three core platforms – finance/payments (including Ant Financial/Alipay), e-Commerce (Taobao TMall Alibaba) and Cloud Market leader in cloud in China Huge anchor in self-serving for cloud, where infrastructure is tested every year in marquee Singles Day shopping event (November 11) Alibaba Cloud provided a scalable, reliable and secure public cloud infrastructure that handled single day gross merchandise value of RMB268 billion (US$38.4 billion) on 11.11 – multiples of what was achieved on Cyber Monday/Black Friday Processed 544,000 orders per second at peak and 970 petabytes of data without disruption for the sales event 824 million mobile monthly active users 711 million active annual customers Has first in class logistics channel Majority stakeholder in Cainiao logistics services Large venture capital provider for nascent Chinese tech with strong investment returns Major player in entertainment industry and digital media in China Alibaba Pictures responsible for many highest grossing films in China Financials EBITA of US$7.3 billion Strong free cash flow generation of RMB78 billion or US$11bn This is not a typo! They have an immense amount of interest income/income from equity associates owing to its market leadership as a lender (which is below the EBITDA line) 38% revenue growth in 2019 38% core e-commerce revenue growth 62% cloud computing revenue growth Valuation and Total Return Trading at 26x EV/2020 EBITDA and 30x Price/Earnings High growth and strong free cash flow – estimate 15x EV/EBITDA by 2022 Low debt In theory should be trading partially as a multiple to sales with a sum-of-the-parts valuation on the back of a new cloud division Cloud quarterly revenue was RMB10 billion in 4Q2019 Catalysts Market leadership and advanced technology for serving huge available markets Financial technology can allow Alibaba to supplant major retail and commercial banks as a lending platform Big data and default rates are one possibility Total available market for cloud in China is massive and Alibaba is the runaway market leader Alibaba is one of the largest and most important Chinese companies but by virtue of having historically listed in New York before a Hong Kong IPO in 2019 is not listed on any major Chinese indices When they do become an index constituent, institutional buyers will be able to hold more Alibaba stock This is especially true for benchmark hugging mutual funds Applicable for both Chinese domestic funds as well as global institutional investors as China will continue to make up a growing piece of the world index pie Alibaba is currently not investable for retail Mainland Chinese buyers (to purchase Hong Kong listed stocks) as it is not a stock connect participant Demand will rise once this is realized Alibaba trades much lower on a multiple basis versus U.S. technology peers Either U.S. technology will rerate down or Alibaba will experience strong multiple expansion Additionally, they have a huge addressable market across multiple industries including cloud and financial technology Plans to pursue similar platform building in developing countries through repeatability of success in China Lazada is the leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia ANTA Sports Products Limited (SEHK: 2020) The Chinese Nike, ANTA owns FILA (yes FILA is Chinese now), FILA KIDS, KINGKOW, KOLON Sport and various other brands Brand representatives include Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors) Increasing brand recognition in China and globally – previously was a mass market or lower market brand taking advantage of a rapidly growing consumer base Now plays in both luxury and mass market niches that can continue to target rural China and developing markets Acquisition of FILA allows for new distribution channel for FILA in Chinese market (similar to Volvo / Geely) Cross-branding with Marvel and brand ambassadors to increase brand awareness Official partner of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games Multi-channel distribution on street stores, shop-in-shop, outlets and large presence online Active on Tmall, JD and Vipshop Industry cluster in Fujian spearheads strong R&D strategy and efficient supply chain Chip Wilson (Lululemon founder) has substantial equity stake Major equity investment in Amer Sports Arc’teryx Financials Analyst consensus estimates of RMB36 billion in revenue and RMB 10 billion in EBITDA for 2020 Strong operating margin of 29% Continues to benefit from economies of scale Mid- to high teens sales growth for corporate and 30% growth for FILA Strong free cash flow Consistently enjoys return on equity of 30% or greater Investment Thesis Growing consumer market domestically in China and starting to gain relevant brand power Chinese GDP growth of 6% per year with shift towards domestic consumption Total consumer goods retail sales in China was RMB20 trillion in 1H2019 Nationalist sentiment rising will pivot consumer tastes domestically (negative for Nike and Under Armour) Sport and athleisure / leisure wear becoming more relevant Lifestyle trends are focused on fitness with various reinforcement mediums (Douyin/Tiktok, Weibo) Well positioned to sell to multiple market segments in developing world Valuation and Total Return Enterprise value and Market capitalization of approx. RMB190 billion (net cash position) Excellent financial position with cash exceeding cheap bank debt and ample liquidity Trades at 16x forward EBITDA and 23x forward earnings but on the back of very strong growth and large addressable market Supported by very high return on equity and operating margin Annual revenue growth of 25% expected for 2020 Often compared to Xtep and Li Ning but only Li Ning has a similar return on capital invested/return on equity (minimal net debt for both) Has scale advantage from a cost perspective but Li Ning growth is greater given smaller base Pays dividend of 1.1% Trades cheaply versus Li Ning and global peers Nike, Under Armour, Lululemon, and in line with Adidas and Puma Trades at a premium to Xtep and 361 Degrees who are struggling in Chinese domestic market China Construction Bank (SEHK 0939) 6% dividend yield from one of the biggest banks in China CCB has one of the strongest balance sheets and largest deposit bases in China (and the world) 13.75% Common Equity Tier 1 7% deposit growth Lower shadow banking exposure 1% ROA and 12% ROE 9% loan growth Good credit with 1.4% non-performing loans China East Education Holdings (SEHK 0667) Provides vocational training As of 1H19, 168 schools operated with 133,000 average number of students enrolled Primary segments are Culinary Arts, Information Technology and Auto Services All are relevant secondary disciplines in academic focused China and beneficial for gainful employment Headquartered in Hefei, Anhui Valuation and Total Return EV of RMB31 billion but market cap of RMB36 billion owing to large net cash balance Trading at 7x sales of RMB4.5 billion with expected 22% growth for 2020 Tuition is tailored to be affordable (usually max out around 70,000 RMB) Focus is shifting from short term courses to more lucrative but cheaper per time unit long term courses Trading at 17x EBITDA or 11x 2021 EBITDA 2021 P/E of 24x Should be caution as still not widely held by institutional investors (9% ownership) Majority controlled by cofounders Matthews Asia is the largest institutional owner of the stock Investment Thesis Sets up Chinese workforce for large shift to domestic consumer spending and a growing tertiary industry from primary (resource extraction) and secondary (manufacturing) In-demand trades allow for many Chinese to find middle to high paying jobs in services Addressable market for vocational training will rise as incomes rise and households shift from savings to consumption Government policy will likely be stimulative, further pushing industry and supporting employment China Merchants Bank SHSE: 600036 SEHK: 3968 Major wholesale and retail bank that operates in Greater China and internationally with 80,000 employees Not a state-owned bank In June 2019, CMB had 139 branches and 1,679 sub branches in more than 130 cities in Mainland China and 6 branches and 2 representative offices overseas CMB owns Wing Lung Bank in Hong Kong, a commercial bank Offers full suite of commercial banking products from time deposits to loans to credit cards Has a leasing practice under CMB Financial Leasing Co. 50% interest in Cigna CMB Life Insurance Has a robust asset management and private banking practice with strong R&D in technology and fintech (approximately 800,000 customers on the CMB app and developments in cloud + API, Big Data + Artificial Intelligence) Highest private banking AUM far ahead of number 2 Bank of China Market cap of RMB 888 billion (February 2020) Highest price/book and price/earnings for Chinese banks, consistently trading at a premium to peer universe as investor favorite 134 million retail customers with a total AUM of 7.3 trillion RMB Financials 270 billion RMB operating income in 2019, about 2/3 being interest income and 1/3 being non-interest income This represents 8.5% growth from 2018 10% asset growth to 7.4 trillion RMB and 15% gross loan growth to 4.5 trillion RMB Non-performing loans ratio fell to 1.16% Return on average equity of 16% and return on assets of 1.3% – very strong compared to peers Investment Thesis China is poised to liberalize interest rates and encourage increased lending and China Merchants Bank is best positioned with the high retail deposit base (and accordingly the lowest cost of funds) This is tempered by rising competition from mobile wallets and fintech firms such as Alibaba’s Ant Financial, but the buy is growing much faster than competitive pressures Growing retail and private banking base – with some of the best customers that are bankable in Greater China choosing to bank with CMB that have various cross-sell opportunities in wealth management products and insurance Low downside risk owing to strong non-performing loan coverage (NPL) and continued outperformance (high ROE) make it unlikely to be under stress like other Chinese financials Valuation and Total Return Current dividend yield of 2.6% Generally valued using a Dividend Discount but not going to get into the details here Versus other H-share banks, CMB has a 3x Price/2020 Earnings multiple premium which we see staying still (while profit continues to grow at a faster rate) Only bank trading above 1x Price/Book Justified as CMB has the highest ROE and ROA by far CNOOC SEHK: 0883 China National Offshore Oil Company One of China’s big 3 state-owned oil and gas companies, primarily involved in offshore domestic and international oil and gas production Released 3-year target in strategy guidance Production growth of 6-7% per year to 2025 and attractive current dividend yield approaching 6% Beaten down due to reduced oil demand from China’s Wuhan coronavirus, this is a temporary trough Unlike the other two Chinese major State Owned Producers it is a pure play E&P and has good torque to oil prices but a low cost base so that it is more protected in a decline Share price is highly correlated to the oil price Good explorer and operator, with major finds in major oilfields in Guyana (Liza), China Bohai Bay (4.4 billion barrels of heavy oil), and the UK North Sea (Buzzard) and much more exploration upside Very low cost producer with sub US$30 breakevens (this is for full cycle including depreciation, actual cash costs are very low, around $10 including decommissioning) US$35 per barrel investment criteria Strong free cash flow during growth period as operating cash flow is in excess of growth capex and dividend (room to grow dividend) Good return on capital (above 12% return on equity despite low leverage) and relatively longer-life stable production versus U.S. shale Li Ning Company Limited (SEHK 2331) Sports company started by previous generation Chinese sports hero Li Ning LI-NING is China’s sportswear company with the highest brand value Business mix is split fairly evenly between Sports Casual (including China LI-NING, basketball (both 30%), running, training (both 20% Top tier badminton brand, this generation’s YONEX Major brand ambassadors include Dwyane Wade Influencers using streaming and social media to raise awareness Multi-channel selling through normal retail (sell through, company run stores), online and planned flagship or semi-flagship stores (Tianjin Binjiang road Modern City Store with monthly sales of RMB1.4 million or Chengdu Chunxi South Road Experience store) 100-120 stores at YE 2019 1H19 Financials Revenue increased by 33% to RMB 6,255 million Mid teens same store sales growth (SSSG) 30-40% e-commerce growth Using big data to position products for target audiences Operating cash flow of RMB1,366 million Net profit for 1H2019 was RMB795 million with profit margin of 12.7% Represents growth of 196% Improvement in working capital Gross average WC fell by 16% while revenue jumped 33% y-o-y Valuation and Total Return Stock is expensive with growth priced in at 30x forward consensus 2020 earnings Minimal debt and large net cash position (RMB4.5 billion) Return on equity of 23% in 2019 1% dividend yield Investment Thesis Sports industry trending upwards in China as growing mass affluent middle class enroll children in sports and popularity of active lifestyle increases for adults E-Sports sponsorship is extending brand outreach in relatively new market segment League of Legends and other online games are amongst most popular pastimes for Chinese millennials and Generation Z National Policy pushing active lifestyles to improve healthcare and quality of life outcomes Estimated sports industry of over RMB5 trillion by 2025 E-commerce and augmented reality increasingly relevant for partnership and development for Li-Ning Undervalued and poorly understood, but being a national champion means Li Ning will be a beneficiary of rising Chinese nationalism in response to perceived aggressive foreign policy from the U.S. (Huawei, coronavirus, xenophobia) Li-Ning has a prominent Chinese theme (frequently invokes cultural symbols in design) and strong brand equity as a national symbol unlike ANTA or Xtep Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China (SEHK 2318) Largest private asset manager and financial group in China with businesses in insurance, banking (Ping An Bank), asset management and fintech/healthcare technology (Ping An Good Doctor / Ping An Technology) Property & Casualty Insurance provides auto, non-auto, accident and health to individuals and group (corporates) Banking was formed post the purchase of a large Shenzhen bank and is a top performing underwriter of loans, asset manager (wealth management products or WMPs) and overall credit provider Ping An has an investment banking division under Ping An Securities, which includes equity research and trading Large trust business Asset manager with mutual funds and other financial products Financials Revenue of approx. HKD 850 billion in 2019, 2020E of HKD 942 billion 200 million retail customers, having risen 9.5% in the first 9 months of 2019 Acquired 30 million new retail customers Net income of approx HKD 174 billion in FY 2019 Ample R&D spending in technology Technology patent applications increased to 20,248 in 2019 3Q AI interview system HR-X and blockchain network have won innovation awards Valuation and Total Return One of the largest companies in China with a market capitalization of 1.7 trillion HKD (over 200 billion USD) Currently trading at 9x price/earnings and 2.6x Price/Book Value 2021E price earnings of 8.4x Investment Thesis Premium name in insurance and asset management in China Brand equity allows Ping An to attract top talent Ahead of the curve versus other financial institutions in technology – has set aside large amounts for R&D and innovation Trades at a cheap multiple (albeit relative premium to weaker financials) Will benefit from Chinese investors switching to equities via wealth management products and secular tailwinds from an increasingly affluent society Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SEHK 0981) Valuation and Investment Thesis This stock is a semiconductor foundry stock that trades at a very high multiple in terms of P/E or EV/EBITDA versus closest peer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) Semiconductors are separated into fabless manufacturing, foundries and integrated firms (design and fabricate) Companies focused on design and that outsource their fabrication (fabless) include AMD, NVIDIA and HiSilicon (Huawei) Integrated players include Samsung and Intel Semiconductor foundries include TSMC and SMIC As such, analysts will value the stock based on its addressable market and growth potential SMIC is the largest and most sophisticated foundry in China Versus TSMC, the enterprise value is a fraction of the size – if it becomes a TSMC, it can be a ten-bagger return for investors If the tech advances, SMIC can displace TSMC Currently a solid mass producer of lower end integrated circuits (mature node) but behind TSMC technology for the advance node SMIC currently competes in the second tier of foundries with Global Foundries and UMC 14nm is better than Samsung, unexpectedly Semiconductor Backdrop – US China The U.S. and China are currently entering into a new cold war with the U.S.’s primary strategy to deny China from moving up the value chain – with Huawei being the primary target as they are the leader in Chinese R&D As a function of this, anything that uses U.S. intellectual property (IP) is at risk of not being allowed to be sold to Huawei Negative long-term ramifications for U.S. R&D as corporations will look to avoid U.S. IP TSMC can be blocked from making semiconductors for Huawei and other select Chinese firms TSMC is the most advanced foundry (Samsung is behind) and Huawei needs them currently for their Kirin processors which are used in their most advanced products China’s government is looking for semiconductor self-sufficiency – as SMIC is the leader, it will benefit from grants, large state owned minority interest (already supported by large equity raise on the Shanghai tech board STAR Board anchored by state funds), tax benefits and direction of concentrated buyer power SMIC is behind TSMC by two generations and the gap is estimated to take 5 years to close SMIC is not capable of producing the most advanced chips (currently 5nm technology exists at TSMC, moving to 3nm) SMIC itself is threatened as the US is looking to stop key lithography tools required for producing cutting edge semiconductors from being exported to SMIC (namely, ASML products – which are Dutch – and also key components in the supply chain from US corporates such as Lam Research) The Future of Semiconductors Foundries are a maturing industry and will be more and more treated as a commodity once China is more independent from a tech perspective Expect them to behave more like industrial stocks once the quality gap closes May move into a different substrate and use different techniques to gain more computing power as opposed to Moore’s Law Maybe Germanium based where China will be the world leader If this occurs, SMIC will be a world leader Similar to China leapfrogging as they have with mobile payments (Alipay/Ant Financial and WeChat Pay bypassing credit cards entirely) Stock PitchStock Pitch: Long Canada Goose (TSE:GOOS) · Leasing and Speciality Finance Companies Part II: Element Fleet Management Case Study · Share on Facebook Share Share on TwitterTweet Share on LinkedIn Share Print Print